The drivers' title may have been wrapped up by Max Verstappen under the lights of Las Vegas, but the Qatar Grand Prix still provided many opportunities for battles to be borne out on track, in the stewards room and media pen.
McLaren entered the weekend knowing that they could mathematically clinch the Constructor's title, but would need a near-perfect weekend to do so. Saturday's sprint race gave them the perfect start as Piastri and Norris finished in an orchestrated 1-2 ahead of Mercedes' George Russell. Red Bull had been some way off the pace during practice and sprint qualifying and elected to break parc ferme rules with Sergio Perez to allow them to try some setup changes (once the Mexican had finally got going from the pit lane). These changes appeared to be effective, as despite only finishing 8th in the sprint, champion-elect Verstappen finished Grand Prix qualifying with the fastest lap time. However, Max was later ruled to have impeded Russell by "driving unnecessarily slowly" - and whilst he was certainly dawdling on the racing line, neither drivers were on push laps. This was the reason provided by the race stewards for downgrading the standard 3-place grid penalty to a rather unusual 1-place penalty, putting the Dutchman behind the Brit on the grid.
Max didn't stay there for long, as he hooked up his start to get ahead of the Mercedes off the line and then held off a charge from the fast-starting McLaren of Lando Norris. The first lap was one of the more chaotic of recent races, as Hulkenberg nudged into Ocon at turn 1, who in turn took himself and Colapinto into the gravel. Further up the grid, Stroll and Albon collided as drivers struggled to get early grip in cold temperatures on a dusty track. Although the perpetrators of both incidents were able to initially continue, Stroll was soon told to park up to avoid causing any more damage, joining Ocon and Colapinto on the list of retirees. It turned out to be Ocon's last event for Alpine as the team later confirmed that 2025 driver Jack Doohan would replace Ocon in Abu Dhabi, allowing Ocon to join Haas for the postseason driver test event. The stewards continued to be busy, issuing penalties for a false-start by Hamilton, and collisions caused by Stroll, Lawson and Albon.
Oscar Piastri also made up some places off the start to get past Leclerc, putting McLaren 2nd and 4rd ahead of the prancing horses in 5th and 6th. This put McLaren in a strong position, albeit still short of the 44-point delta required to seal the constructors title over Ferrari. However, it was to be the wing mirror from Alex Albon's Williams that was to be the catalyst for a number of race - and potentially championship - defining outcomes.
The wing mirror had detached itself from the chassis of the Williams along the start-finish straight, settling off the racing line, but still very much on a live race circuit and highly likely to be in the line used where cars could be overtaking under DRS or lining up to overtake into the turn 1 braking zone. Somewhat bafflingly then, race control opted not to neutralise the race to allow the debris to be removed, instead opting to cover the situation with a double-yellow flag. This decision was later explained as being due to the fact that a VSC would not have created a sufficient window to allow the debris to be collected from the track by a marshal, due to the spacing of cars around the track. However, with teams entering their pit windows this situation was unlikely to change - and with double-yellows along the main straight and DRS disabled this effectively suspended the race anyway, so it remains unclear how new Race Director Rui Marques planned to address this situation. The level of indecisiveness almost echoed the infamous malpractice in Abu Dhabi in 2021, again highlighting the extreme difficulties and pressures of directing a Formula 1 event. The Grand Prix was Marques' sixth race session of the weekend (F1 sprint and GP, F2 sprint and feature race and 2 F1 academy races), which may have contributed to the delay in taking action and raises questions on how Formula 1 events should be best staffed and managed.
Action did have to be taken when, somewhat inevitably, the mirror was collected a few laps later at 180mph by the Sauber of Valtteri Bottas, sending a cloud of glass and carbon fibre across the track. Sainz and Hamilton immediately suffered punctures, demoting the Spaniard to 8th and the Brit to 16th effectively ending his race. Worse was to come for Hamilton though as the Safety Car was deployed for the second time in the evening and was directed through the pits whilst the clean up took place on the main straight. However, as Lewis followed Max Verstappen through the pits (a lap down) he failed to engage his pit-lane speed limiter and was later penalised with a drive-through penalty for pit-lane speeding: a penalty that raised some eyebrows due to it being significantly more severe than is typically issued for that offence. Lewis however was clocked at 92.5kph at the pitlane entry and well above the 80kph limit; significantly faster than the 1-2kph breach normally seen and reflected accordingly in the penalty issued by the stewards.
If the stewards' decision towards Lewis was doused in context and circumstance, then Lando Norris was left distinctly short-changed. Max Verstappen used his time behind the safety car to lobby his team to challenge if Lando Norris had slowed under the double-waved yellows. Video replay evidence was damning and the stewards later agreed, serving Norris with a 10-second stop/go penalty - the most severe penalty available short of an event disqualification. The stewarding document accompanying this decision simply notes "Compliance with the yellow flag rules is paramount for the safety of all parties and this requirement is clearly noted in the first item of the Race Director's Event Notes at every event." McLaren Team Principal Andreas Stella said the decision "lacked any specificity and proportion", a view supported by fellow team boss Toto Wolff.
There of course remains an argument that it cannot be for the drivers to determine what level of danger may exist on a race track, nor which warnings to heed or ignore. Slowing for yellow flags is a principle enforced at all levels of racing, from Formula 1 down to amateur karting races. However it does seem that yet again the stewards have found a new way to be consistently inconsistent - in this case by applying context to the penalties given to Verstappen and Hamilton but not to Norris, and the current off-track tensions between drivers, teams and FIA leadership will continue to roll on.
After serving his penalty Norris was able to push and finish in 10th, collecting a fastest-lap point in the process. The McLaren lead to Ferrari has been cut to 21 points, which should be enough to close out the constructors title in Abu Dhabi but McLaren cannot afford any further mistakes. In the three-way battle for 6th in the constructors championship, Alpine remain five points ahead of Haas with RB nine points behind Haas (not the only team to hold a 9 point lead after this weekend!)
As we approach the final weekend of this longest-ever F1 season, now seems as good a time as any to revisit my start of season predictions, as shared in my FF1 season preview. So, how did things pan out?
Red Bull
Prediction: "retain both titles, but made to work harder for it this year. 1st."
They certainly had to work harder, especially through the second part of the year following the effective departure of Adrien Newey. Although Max carried enough of an advantage from a dominant start to the season to clinch the drivers' championship in Las Vegas, Red Bull have been fundamentally hampered by only having one car regularly scoring significant points and failed in their defence of the Constructors title. This should be a concern to the MK outfit, especially as they adjust to losing a number of key personnel and seem to be on the back-foot approaching the 2026 regulation changes - and no doubt speculation surrounding their 2025 line-up will continue into the close season.
Mercedes
Prediction: "fall behind Ferrari in the race to catch Red Bull; occasional podiums but not enough to finish above McLaren. 4th."
Well, spot on in terms of outcome, albeit not quite the expected order ahead of them. It's been a season that's blown hot and cold for Mercedes, with some great weekends mixed with some real question marks. The team still seem to be struggling to understand some fundamentals with the car, leading to frustrations across the team. Not least from the departing Lewis Hamilton who has experienced a number of disappointing weekends interspersed with a few highlights such as his home win at Silverstone. George Russell has had more consistent performances - albeit still not extraordinary - and he steps up to the senior driver role next year alongside rookie Kimi Antonelli.
Ferrari
Prediction: Leclerc and Sainz to win races and both regularly finishing on the podium allow them to take the constructors fight to RBR, but just fall short. 2nd.
Ferrari have somewhat pranced up along the outside rail this year. Whilst focus has been mostly on Red Bull and McLaren, the Ferrari pair of Leclerc and Sainz have recorded solid results, taking a couple of wins apiece. Going into the final race in Abu Dhabi they sit just 21 points behind McLaren and can still clinch the Constructors title with results in their way.
McLaren
Prediction: The feel good story team of the year. Strong performances across the season; Lando to pick up a maiden victory. 3rd.
I'm not sure anyone would have made a genuine prediction of them finishing top of the pile, but it's certainly been the feel good story of 2024. Lando did get that maiden victory in Miami as Red Bull started to stumble, then followed it with victories in the Netherlands and Singapore. An unexpected driver's title challenge from Lando was ultimately unsuccessful, but the team remains in prime position to clinch the constructors title in Abu Dhabi, short of a catastrophic result. It's a return to form welcomed by many F1 fans (well - UK ones at least) for the Woking-based team with hopes for another 3 or 4- way team battle in 2025.
Aston Martin
Prediction: lack the edge from last year and are generally in lower points-scoring positions in Alonso's swansong season. 6th.
As expected, Aston Martin couldn't find the form from last year and even the might of Fernando Alonso was unable to "drag" (geddit?) a somewhat lethargic car to better results, peaking with a 5th place finish at the second race of the season in Saudi Arabia. Team owner Lawrence Stroll has already responded by breaking out his chequebook, with the marquee signing of aerodynamic supremo Adrian Newey joining the team to work on their 2026-spec car. They're pretty much set to finish one place higher than expected in 5th (save an era-defining Alpine 1-2 finish in Abu Dhabi) but that will be something of a focus for improvement for this ambitious team and owner.
Alpine
Prediction: new car doesn't do enough to make up for volatility in the back-office and inconsistent performances cost points. 8th.
Alpine have spent the season in recovery mode and have struggled for points. A combined haul of 33 points from the chaos of Brazil more than doubled their score to date and catapulted into a 3-way fight with Haas and RB with just 13 points spanning 6th and 8th heading into Abu Dhabi - worth around $30m in prize money. Their changes in back-office personnel were reflected on the track after a collision between Gasly and Ocon at Monaco, with the latter later being confirmed by team principal Bruno Famin as being replaced by Jack Doohan for 2025. Famin himself only remained with the team for a few more months as the volatility endured. 2025 also marks Alpine's last season as a works team as they become a Mercedes customer team and Renault exit the sport.
Williams
Prediction: stability starts to pay dividends but hampered by driver line up. 7th.
It's not been the season that many at Williams would have hoped for, with more DNFs than points finishes and a lowly 9th placed finish in the constructors table. A mid-season driver change brought Franco Colapinto who initially impressed (even if he did accidentally press the 'Logan' button in Brazil). James Vowles seems to be continuing to steady the ship and they are joined in 2025 by the experienced Carlos Sainz and could push the team back towards the midfield pack.
RB
Prediction: rediscover some form in a tight midfield battle over Aston Martin but a little inconsistent. 5th.
Although they couldn't keep up with the Aston Martins, RB have scored regular podiums across their three drivers this year. Currently sitting 8th they'll be hoping that results go in their favour in the battle over Alpine and Haas in Abu Dhabi, but will likely look with some disappointment on how this season has unfolded. A late-season switch from Danny Ricciado to Liam Lawson has not yielded a substantial change in fortune whilst Yuki Tsunoda has mixed some good points-scoring finishes with some inconsistency. Tsunoda is contracted to remain at RB next year, although both he and Lawson have been linked with a promotion to the senior Red Bull team should Sergio Perez head for the exit.
Sauber
Prediction: If F1 get no value from the Andretti name they're not getting any from the Sauber name either. 10th.
Rooted to the bottom of the table and a pointless campaign beckoned until Zhou Guangyu finished 9th in Qatar to break the team's duck. Valtteri Bottas remains without a point heading into Abu Dhabi and both drivers are without an F1 seat in 2025, although Guangyu is rumoured to remain in the paddock as the reserve driver at Ferrari. They'll be replaced next year by Nico Hulkenberg who enters his 14th Formula season as a full-time driver alongside Brazilian rookie and current F2 leader Gabriel Bortoleto.
Haas
Prediction: If anyone can get a Haas in the points it's KMag and Hulk. Both to retire from F1 at the end of the season. 9th.
Both Magnussen and Hulkenberg have been regular points-finishers this season, which has put Haas in the last-race battle over 6th place. That would be seen as a strong result for a team with the reported lowest budget on the grid. Haas are the second team on the grid to be replacing both drivers for 2025, as Magnussen is set to leave F1 at the end of the year and Hulkenberg transfers to Sauber.
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