The 2026 Formula One season is being billed as one of the biggest shake-ups in the sport’s history.

New Wings (not just for Red Bull)

The most obvious change for the 2026 cars is the new aerodynamic regulations, with the 2022-era ground-effect experiment being put out to stud. Cars are returning to stepped floors, relying again on front and rear surfaces for downforce generation. This is a change that should fundamentally suit the hard, late-braking styles of many of the drivers, some of whom struggled with entry and mid-corner stability under the ground-effect rules.

DRS is DOA; instead cars will have two aero “modes”, one for reduced drag on the straights and one for increased grip in the corners. Unlike DRS, drivers will be free to switch between the settings at-will, not just when in battle. This is another demand on the drivers’ in-lap workloads and expect this to lead to some “experiments at the limit” during practice sessions. I’ll happily run a book on the first driver to blame being in the ‘wrong mode’ for converting their multi-million race car into a bag of carbon fibre jigsaw pieces.

New Engines, New Fuels

Alongside the changes to the aerodynamic packages, teams are having to contend with a new hybrid-V6 engine configuration, powered by 100% synthetic fuels. The overly complex MGU-H is removed and instead, electrical power has been boosted to 350KW, representing close to 50% of the total output. Drivers will also have a “push to pass” option that can be activated when in close proximity to a car in front (effectively replacing DRS); the management and deployment of this will be critical and will hopefully add another dimension to some on-track battles.

With this increased dependency on electrical power, questions have already been raised as to whether engines will be able to harvest sufficient power on some lap configurations. The intention is that with more slippery cars and higher top-speeds, the increased depth of braking zones will allow for increased energy recovery, but will some track configurations have cars running out of electrical boost at the end of straights - in China, Belgium or Las Vegas for example? Will the new fuels offer the expected fuel consumption, or will there be a return to the dreaded lift-and-coast?

Disclosure: this is being penned on the Monday before the first Bahrain test - its 2 long straights and relatively limited braking zones should give teams a decent first opportunity to test some power management strategies and we should get a better picture of any limitations, especially compared to the Barcelona shakedown.

• Stuart - To add to this comment, the F1 authorities are also in the mix re engine compressions ratios, as Steve explains below. Our predictions take no account of any potential FIA efforts to level performance.

New Teams

The Formula 1 constructors entry list for 2026 has one additional team and a new name for an existing team, increasing the entry to 11 for the first time in 10 years.

Audi has completed its transition from Sauber, becoming a full works team with their own power unit for 2026. Both Nico Hulkenberg and Gabi Bortoletto have been retained and the pit wall is staffed with a wealth of F1 experience in Johnathan Wheatley and James Key as Team Principal and Technical Director respectively. They will hope to continue their progress towards the mid- field, but will the regulation shake-up be in their favour or against them?

• Stuart - I’ve worked in the automotive industry for several decades and have seen first hand what Audi is capable of achieving. In the nineties, in the UK, an Audi was something gathering dust in a VW showroom, that a salesman would sell to you if he couldn’t sell you a VW. Sales were circa 30,000 per year. But their long term plan, that included dominance at Le Mans for a decade, from scratch, yielded sales of around 170,000 at their peak. Add to this what they were able to do in World Rallying, and you’ll see that you’d underestimate Audi at your peril. Can they do the same in F1?

Bringing the grid to 22 cars, Cadillac makes their Formula 1 debut. Graeme Lowden makes his return to the F1 Paddock as Team Principal and the team have recruited fan-favourites Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez at the helm. They are running as a customer Ferrari team in 2026 as a stop-gap to running their own GM motor from 2027. Expect to see the normal reliability and operational challenges that so commonly infect a new F1 team, but plenty of fun along the way from a driver-pairing that’s as much about winning fans off the track, as scoring points on it.

• Stuart - This new entrant compares favourably with the new entrants of old. Their livery was launched at the NFL Superbowl half time. Graeme Lowden, in interviews, talked about how they live simulated Grand Prix weekends. And how they had 150,000 applicants for the 900 people they wanted to recruit. The financial demands simply to enter are in the hundreds of millions of dollars. F1 has moved on since the entries of HRT and their like in 2010.

New Arguments

F1 wouldn’t be F1 without some rancour over the regulations — and cars hadn’t even been unveiled before this season’s wrangling began.

Many rules surround the new engine specifications - and one that is firmly in the spotlight relates to the maximum permitted engine compression ratio. The regulations fairly clearly dictate that this ratio cannot be greater than 16:1, however it fails to explicitly state the conditions under which this will be measured. This is a critical point as anyone will remember from school science lessons that objects expand when they get hot (and engines do tend to get rather, well, hot). Mercedes engineers are alleged to have made their new engines using parts in such a way that the stated compression ratio increases at normal operating temperatures, giving them potentially an extra 15bhp of power. With this translating into an expected several tenths per lap benefit, it’s apparent why the other engine manufacturers who missed this loophole are raising objections.

The FIA has acknowledged that as it stands, Mercedes are operating within the letter, if not the spirit of the regulations. Whilst they are now actively looking to close the loophole, having an agreement ahead of the first race in Melbourne seems unlikely, given the work and effort that would be required to redesign and remanufacture either way, at this stage.

Team By Team

Readers who haven’t given up by this point will remember that last season, Stuart C and I both gave our predictions for the start of the season. I think it’s safe to say that Stuart came out comfortably on top of that, but, well, he did go first. It’s my turn to go first this year so will see if that makes any difference.

McLaren (2025: 1st)

• Steve - A dominant 2025, wrapping up the Constructors Championship in style with races to spare. But will that focus have impacted their readiness for 2026? Is Oscar out for redemption? Will this be the year that Papaya Rules are bent, or even broken? I’m expecting an early hangover and maybe some internal distractions, but with both Oscar and LN1 winning races, they stay as the team to beat.
• Stuart - I think that, having ascended the mountain, and met their life goals, McLaren will find it hard to replicate the success of 2024 and 2025. I think as a customer of Mercedes, they will be a tiny fraction behind with the power unit. But I do think they will be at the pointy end of things all year.

Steve says: 1st. Stuart says: 3rd.

Mercedes (2025: 2nd)

• Steve - Mercedes, probably more than any other team on the grid, have been looking forward to the 2026 regulation changes. Their ground-effect cars were never fully able to remain competitive and the last four years have been a tough grind for Toto Wolff and his Brackley merry men and women. When the original hybrid-v6 engines were introduced, Mercedes dominated and won all 8 Constructors championships of that regulation era. Will history repeat itself? They’re rumoured to have the edge in the engine department (at least to begin with) so they’ll need to make hay on the fly-aways. A slightly weaker and less consistent driver pairing will leave them behind McLaren come December, but expect George Russell to have his best chance at a driver’s title yet.
• Stuart - I think they will have a dominant power unit and will have put the ground effect era behind them. Their depth of team talent and the relative lack of changes over the last year or so will take them back to the top. George is more than ready to win a long campaign, and Kimi will be snapping at his heels to keep in focussed.

Steve says: 2nd. Stuart says: 1st.

Red Bull (2025: 3rd)

• Steve - New Engine, Who Dis? A tumultuous 2025 meant Red Bull left the end-of-season awards dinner empty handed for the first time in five years. 2026 sees them switching to a Ford engine (at least in name) and is their first full season in the post Marko/Horner/Newey era. Although Max will continue to do Max-esque things, the hill still seems quite steep for them to climb and others are ready to capitalise on the new technical regulations.
• Stuart - They will have designed a car that is less peaky which will bring Hadjar into play, who will be more successful than any of his predecessors in that second RB seat. Like Steve says, Max will do his thing. The drama of Horner and Marko has gone. But their new power unit will be the Achilles heel and lose them some points.

Steve says: 5th. Stuart says 4th.

Ferrari (2025: 4th)

• Steve - Ferrari fans continue to hold the perennial optimism that “next year is our year”, with little to show for their loyalty. Any early hopes for 2026 could have already been dashed, should the Mercedes engine performance advantage rumours manifest into results on the track. This is a do- or-go-home moment for Hamilton: 2025 tested his patience and he’ll be hoping - and expecting - a significant improvement in 2026. His race engineer Riccardo Adami has been relieved of his duties, with former Mercedes trackside performance engineer Luca Diella emerging as the frontrunner for the role. I’d go so far as to say that if Lewis isn’t feeling that either the car, or the team is under him he may even walk away part way through the season. Ferrari need to do everything they can to avoid that.
• Stuart - I think its about time they nailed it and I think they’ll be second best this year. Charles is always good and Lewis will get his mojo back in a car he can drive like he likes. Maybe a bit of over optimism here related to all of us struggling to watch Lewis interviews last year.

Steve says: 3rd. Stuart says: 2nd.

Williams (2025: 5th)

• Steve - Should be in a very strong position to capitalise on a better-than-expected 2025, but non- attendance at the teams’ private shakedown in Barcelona has set alarm bells ringing. The Williams resurgence under James Vowles continues to make ground and they should have the engine of choice to start the season, if they can keep the mistakes in check.
• Stuart - I agree with Steve’s commentary, just I think the big four stay the big four – so fifth again.

Steve says: 4th. Stuart says: 5th.

Racing Bulls (2025: 6th)

• Steve - Racing Bull will be reliant on the RB Ford engine not compromising their season. Top points scorer from last year Issak Hajar has moved up to the senior team, leaving Liam Lawson and the sole 2026 rookie Arvid Lindblad behind the wheels. As the broader Red Bull competitiveness continues to wane, the RB could start to struggle.
• Stuart - I agree with Steve here. But they ended up by a process of elimination once I’d placed the other teams.

Steve says: 8th. Stuart says: 8th.

Aston Martin (2025: 7th)

• Steve - Can Adrian Newey work his magic yet again and produce another car that can challenge for races and championships? Aston Martin will be hoping to halt a decline from recent years that saw them from regular podiums in 2023 to periods of struggling for points in 2025. Newey’s pencils were brought in specifically to interpret and design with the new aero regulations in mind, but a sub-optimal driver pairing will continue to limit their progress up the standings.
• Stuart - Easy, this one. I agree with Steve. But the question mark surrounds the Honda engine and whether their capability in the previous era can be replicated in the new one, with a new team.

Steve says: 6th. Stuart says: 6th.

Haas (2025: 8th)

• Steve - Haas continue to struggle with consistency, which limits their ability to get closer to the midfield. Oli Bearman had a decent rookie year and will continue to anchor the team until an inevitable move into a top team. If the Ferrari engine is not able to compete with the Mercedes and Ford, Haas will lose out to Racing Bulls and Alpine.
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• Stuart - This assumes the Ferrari nailed the power unit and they continue their progress as a racing team from the second half of last year. But I think their driver line up is a strong one and Ollie will just continue to get better.

Steve says: 10th. Stuart says: 7th.

Audi (2025: 9th - as Sauber)

• Steve - Audi will expect to be competitive from the get-go; they won’t be afforded a first-year honeymoon. They have the collective experience and expertise to score regular points, but the new engine will be their big unknown.
• Stuart - Having said they will be a force to be reckoned with, I don’t think it will be this year. No doubt the chassis will be fine but I think the weak link will be the power unit to start with and so 10th.

Steve says: 9th. Stuart says: 10th.

Alpine (2025: 10th)

• Steve - 2025 was une année horrible for Alpine, scoring a meagre 22 points, exclusively by Pierre Gasly. Pierre returns with teammate Franco Colopinto for 2026, but with a Mercedes power unit behind them will hope to move up the grid and up the standings. Providing both drivers can regularly contribute by scoring points, they stand a chance of fighting back.
• Stuart - I agree they’ll have the best motor but I think they have a way to go, with the change of power unit, and all that brings. I also think they may retain the revolving door of team personnel and associated dramas.

Steve says: 8th. Stuart says: 9th.

Cadillac (2025: N/A)

• Steve - F1 is a team sport, and no amount of individual experience or success makes up for a team operating in full harmony. It will inevitably take Cadillac some time to find their feet and reaching the points should be their primary target.
• Stuart - Here too, I agree with Steve. The effort to simply be on the grid is gargantuan and last in the constructors would be no failure in year one.

Steve says: 11th. Stuart says: 11th